The Bank of England are oblivious to the needs of the Electorate, they always act too late, always !?

October 2, 2025

What the experts say,

LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) – Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said on Tuesday that a recent climb in headline inflation was unlikely to last and there were risks to the economy if interest rates are kept high for too long.
Speaking shortly after a colleague on the Monetary Policy Committee, Catherine Mann, warned that inflation might be stuck at a high level, Breeden took a contrasting tone in her speech.

She was among the majority of MPC members who at the BoE’s September meeting voted to keep borrowing costs on hold at 4% after voting to reduce them by 25 basis points in August in a narrow 5-4 vote by the MPC.

Breeden said the recent “hump” in inflation was unlikely to lead to additional inflationary pressure.

The BoE expects inflation to hit 4% in September before falling only slowly to its 2% target in 2027. But it is also worried about a slowdown in economic growth.

“I do not see evidence that the disinflation process is veering off-track. Instead it remains my central case that the ‘hump’ will prove just a bump in the road,” Breeden said.

LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) – Bank of England interest rate-setter Swati Dhingra said Britain’s high inflation rate is likely to ease off and the central bank should move more quickly to cut borrowing costs.
“The effects of the shocks driving the UK’s current high inflation relative to Europe will fade, and thus, we should not be overly cautious about cutting interest rates,” Dhingra wrote in a column published by The Times newspaper on Friday.

Sept 8 (Reuters) – HSBC and Deutsche Bank on Monday pushed back their forecasts for Bank of England rate cuts, citing persistently high inflation and growing uncertainty over the timing of monetary easing.

HSBC expects the BoE to keep interest rates steady (HIGH!) until April 2026, shifting from its earlier view that the central bank would lower rates every quarter starting from August 2024.

🔍 What the current signals suggest

The next BoE interest-rate meeting is scheduled for 6 November 2025. Bank of England+1
Inflation remains “sticky” — at around 3.8 % — which makes the Bank cautious about cutting too early. Reuters+3Reuters+3Reuters+3
Some MPC members (e.g. Swati Dhingra) are pushing for cuts, arguing that recent inflationary pressures are temporary. Reuters+1
Others are warning that high inflation expectations and other risks could justify holding rates longer. Reuters+2Financial Times+2
HSBC and Deutsche Bank have pushed back their forecasts for a cut, with HSBC now expecting the first rate cut only in April 2026. Reuters

✅ My view (probabilistic)

Given the current data and sentiment:

Probability of a cut in November: low to moderate (perhaps 20–30 %)
Most likely outcome: no change (i.e. the BoE holds rates steady)
The BoE seem oblivious to the needs of the electorate, they are likely to wait for stronger evidence of a sustained decline in inflation before easing policy.